[1]肖修来,李莹甄,许同旭,等.三河—平谷地区b值和地震复发周期的时间变化分析[J].防灾科技学院学报,2017,19(04):23-29.
 Xiao Xiulai,Li Yingzhen,Xu Tongxu,et al.Analysis on the Time Variation of b-value and Earthquake Recurrence Period in Sanhe-Pinggu Area[J].JOURNAL OF INSTITUTE OF DISASTER PREVENTION,2017,19(04):23-29.
点击复制

三河—平谷地区b值和地震复发周期的时间变化分析()
分享到:

《防灾科技学院学报》[ISSN:1673-8047/CN:13-1377/P]

卷:
第19卷
期数:
2017年04期
页码:
23-29
栏目:
目次
出版日期:
2017-12-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Analysis on the Time Variation of b-value and Earthquake Recurrence Period in Sanhe-Pinggu Area
作者:
肖修来李莹甄许同旭沈军
防灾科技学院,河北 三河065201
Author(s):
Xiao Xiulai Li Yingzhen Xu Tongxu Shen Jun
Institute of Disaster Prevention, Sanhe 065201, China
关键词:
三河—平谷地区 G-R b值 复发周期 时间扫描
Keywords:
Sanhe-Pinggu area G-R b value recurrence period time scanning
分类号:
P315.2
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
以华北地区和三河—平谷8级地震构造区为研究区域,采用华北历史地震目录和现代中小地震目录,在地震目录完整性分析的基础上,基于G-R关系用最小二乘法对华北地区与三河—平谷地区的b值和复发周期进行时间扫描计算。计算结果表明华北地区和三河—平谷地区b值自1976年唐山地震以来趋于稳定,分别为067和082;而华北地区和三河—平谷地区的7、8级地震复发周期自1976年唐山地震以来逐渐增大,直到2015年分别在50、200年和5000、35000年以上,这说明三河—平谷地区在未来很长一段时间内地震活动处于平静期。
Abstract:
Taking the North China and Sanhe-Pinggu M80 seismic tectonic zone as the study area, we used the historical catalogs of North China and the catalogs of modern small and medium earthquakes, and conducted time scanning calculation of the b-value and the recurrence period of North China and Sanhe-Pinggu area by the least squares method, based on the integrity analysis of the earthquake catalogs and G-R relationship. The results show that the b-value in north China and Sanhe-Pinggu area, being 067 and 082 respectively, has stabilized, while the recurrence periods of M7 and M8 earthquakes have been increasing since the Tangshan earthquake in 1976. By 2015, the recurrence periods of M7 earthquakes are 50 and 5000 years respectively, while those of M8 earthquakes are 200 and 35000 years respectively in north China and the Sanhe-Pinggu area, which indicated that earthquake activities in Sanhe-Pinggu area is in a long quiet period in the future.

参考文献/References:

[1]Aki K. Asperities, barriers, characteristic earthquakes and strong motion prediction [J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth, 1984, 89(B7):5867-5872.
[2]Wiemer S, Wyss M. Mapping the frequency‐magnitude distribution in asperities: An improved technique to calculate recurrence times? [J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth, 1997, 102(B7):15115–15128.
[3]Swiemer M D. Mapping asperities by minima of local recurrence time:San Jacinto-Elsinore fault zone[J]. Translated World Seismology, 2001.
[4]Scholz C H. The frequency-magnitude relation of microfracturing in rock and its relation to earthquakes[J]. Nihon Naika Gakkai Zasshi the Journal of the Japanese Society of Internal Medicine, 1968, 96(9):1909-11.
[5]Urbancic T I, Trifu C I, Long J M, et al. Space-time correlations of b, values with stress release[J]. Pure & Applied Geophysics, 1992, 139(3-4):449-462.
[6]刘正荣.地震预报[M].北京:地震出版社, 2008.
[7]陈善培.b值和地震复发周期[J].地球物理学报,2003,46(4):511-519.
[8]刘正荣.澜沧、耿马地震前的复发周期时空扫描[J].地震研究,1991,14(4),301-306.
[9]王熠熙,张辉,刘双庆等.河北平原地震带b值时空变化特征[J].地震工程学报,2015, 37(1):188-195.
[10]王辉,曹建玲,申旭辉.华北地区的背景地震活动及区域未来强震危险性[J].地震,2011,31(2):11-23.
[11]边庆凯.华北地区中强地震活动周期的一些特征[J].山西地震,2000,21(1):27-30.
[12]王海涛,李莹甄,屠泓为.新疆历史地震目录完整性分析[J].内陆地震,2006,24(1):10-17.
[13]徐伟进,高孟潭.中国大陆及周缘地震目录完整性统计分析[J].地球物理学报,2014,57(9):2802-2812.
[14]黄玮琼,李文香,曹学锋.中国大陆地震资料完整性研究之—以华北地区为例[J].地震学报,199416(3):263-270.
[15]陈凌,刘杰.地震活动性分析中余震的删除[J].地球物理学报,1998,41(3):247-252.
[16]吴开统.地震序列概论[M].北京:地震出版社,1982:36-50.
[17]傅怔祥.中国大陆地震活动性力学研究[M].北京:地震出版社,1996:49-81.
[18]杨家亮,叶明,李红印. 地震危险性评价中余震活动的影响—以邢台余震区为例[J]. 华北地震科学,2006,26(2):46-49.
[19]刘正荣.地震的复发周期[J].地震研究,1990,34(2):117-121.
[20]王华林.中国华北地区大地震复发活动周期、迁移特征及趋势预测[C]∥中国地球物理学会.1995年中国地球物理学会第十一届学术年会论文集.中国地球物理学会,1995:1.
[21]刘杰,杨一冲,倪建华.利用近代微震资料研究地震危险性[J].中国地震,1997,41(1):12-19.

备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2017-06-07 基金项目:国家自然科学基金(41372216);国家大学生创新项目(20151175006) 作者简介:肖修来(1994—),男,本科,主要从事地震预报方向的研究。 通信作者:李莹甄(1968—),女,本科,副研究员,主要从事地震预报方向的研究。
更新日期/Last Update: 2017-12-30