[1]郝小刚,孟万忠,王亚辉.明代河北地区霜雪低温灾害时空变化[J].防灾科技学院学报,2017,19(04):96-102.
 Hao Xiaogang,Meng Wanzhong,Wang Yahui.Temporal and Spatial Variation of Frost-snow and Low-Temperature Disasters in Hebei in the Ming dynasty[J].JOURNAL OF INSTITUTE OF DISASTER PREVENTION,2017,19(04):96-102.
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明代河北地区霜雪低温灾害时空变化()
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《防灾科技学院学报》[ISSN:1673-8047/CN:13-1377/P]

卷:
第19卷
期数:
2017年04期
页码:
96-102
栏目:
目次
出版日期:
2017-12-30

文章信息/Info

Title:
Temporal and Spatial Variation of Frost-snow and Low-Temperature Disasters in Hebei in the Ming dynasty
作者:
郝小刚孟万忠王亚辉
太原师范学院 历史地理与环境变迁研究所,山西 晋中030619
Author(s):
Hao Xiaogang Meng Wanzhong Wang Yahui
Research Institute of Historical and Environmental Evolution, Taiyuan Normal University, Jinzhong 030619, China
关键词:
河北地区 霜雪低温灾害 时空分布 小波分析 明代
Keywords:
Hebei province frost-snow and low-temperature disasters spatial and temporal distribution wavelet analysis the Ming dynasty
分类号:
S426
文献标志码:
A
摘要:
通过搜集和整理明代河北地区霜雪低温灾害发生的历史文献资料,运用数理分析、累积距平和小波分析等方法,分析了明代河北地区霜雪低温灾害的发生频次、时空特征、周期规律。结果表明:①有明一代,河北地区(京师)霜雪低温灾害共发生了68次,轻度、中度和重度占比分别为:589%,279%和132%。其中以轻度灾害居多,但受灾面广,具有连续性频发现象。②明代河北地区霜雪低温灾害的发生具有明显的阶段性特征,1368—1429年为第1阶段,以轻中度霜雪低温灾害为主,灾害发生频率较低;1430—1519为第2阶段,以中度霜雪低温灾害为主,灾害频次较高;1520—1644为第3阶段,以重度霜雪低温灾害为主、频次较高;明代中、晚期是河北霜雪低温灾害的高发期,且强度最大。③霜雪低温灾害具有明显的空间差异特征,明代河北地区霜雪低温灾害的空间分布特征与冬季风的活动路径趋于一致。④小波分析显示,明代河北地区霜雪低温灾害的发生周期存在着多尺度的特征,灾害存在着9a,20a、31a和41a左右的周期,其中在41a左右的震荡周期最为强烈。明代河北地区的寒冷气候事件都发生在1520年之后,说明明代中晚期的气候比早期寒冷,该地霜雪低温灾害的发生是对明代“小冰期”的响应。
Abstract:
By collecting and sorting out the historical documents of the frost-snow and low-temperature disasters in Hebei in the Ming dynasty, we analyzed the frequency, temporal and spatial characteristics and periodicity of frost-snow and low-temperature disasters by mathematical analysis, cumulative distance and wavelet analysis methods. The results show as following four aspects. First, there were totally 68 frost-snow and low-temperature disasters in Hebei province in the Ming dynasty. The number of mild, moderate and severe disasters account for 589%,279% and 132% respectively. Most of disasters are mild disaster, but the range of disasters is wide and it occurred frequently. Second, there are three striking stages in the frost-snow and low-temperature disasters. In the first stage (1368-1429), the frost-snow and low-temperature disasters are mainly of mild-moderate types with a low occurrence frequency. It is mainly of moderate type with a high frequency in the second stage (1430-1519), is mainly of severe type with a high frequency (1520-1644) in the third stage. The high-incidence period of frost-snow and low-temperature disasters in Hebei is middle and late Ming dynasty, and the characteristic of the disaster is strong intensity. Third, the spatial characteristic of frost-snow and low-temperature disasters has obvious different, and is consistent with the activity path of winter wind. Finally, the wavelet analysis results show that the occurrence period of the frost-snow and low-temperature disasters is characterized by being multi-scale, and is 9a, 20a, 31a and 41a respectively, and the disaster in the last oscillation period is intense. All the cold climate events occurred after 1520, which indicates that it’s colder in the mid- and late Ming dynasty than in the early Ming dynasty. Besides, the occurrence of frost-snow and low-temperature disasters is a reflection of the “little ice age” in the Ming dynasty.

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备注/Memo

备注/Memo:
收稿日期:2017-10-24 基金项目:国家自然科学基金(41671142) 作者简介:郝小刚(1991—),男,硕士研究生,主要从事区域历史环境变迁方向的研究。 通信作者:孟万忠(1971—),男,博士,教授,主要从事地理科学、环境变迁等方向的研究。
更新日期/Last Update: 2017-12-30